Spread: Toledo (-17.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (25%) · Toledo at 79¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo79¢UMass21¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 25%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 78.5¢

+40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toledo79%

UMass22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo2 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,855

Combined PnL+$1.3K

UMass6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,354

Combined PnL-$81.05

Toledo — 25%UMass — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Toledoavg 56.1¢	$3.3K	$4.6K	+$1.3K	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1CTR	UMassavg 43.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$77.33	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UMassavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.06	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UMassavg 44.4¢	$306.88	$307.43	+$0.55	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
38 38791873984189CTR	UMassavg 44.4¢	$308.69	$305.34	+$1.08	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UMassavg 46¢	$230	$227.5	-$2.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UMassavg 42.6¢	$78.81	$74.91	-$3.9	49% 692-733 (1425)
US User7429<$100	Toledoavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.33	+$0.38	25% 117-356 (473)

primm

Toledo

Invested

$3,283.31

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1CTR

UMass

Invested

$1,235.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$77.33

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UMass

Invested

$1,080.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

6512395314597884CTR

UMass

Invested

$306.88

Value

$307.43

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

38791873984189CTR

UMass

Invested

$308.69

Value

$305.34

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UMass

Invested

$230

Value

$227.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$78.81

Value

$74.91

PnL

-$3.9

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

User7429<$100

Toledo

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.38

Record

25%

117-356 (473)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.