Spread: Toledo (-13.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (63%) · Toledo at 53¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Toledo
8
Toledo 63%
$10.7K
$105.32
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralToledo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | UMassavg 48¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$52.08 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Toledoavg 52¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$132.32 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189 | Toledoavg 52¢ | $643.44 | $660.2 | +$16.76 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 VeryLucky888 | Toledoavg 52¢ | $186.9 | $188.7 | +$1.8 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | UMassavg 44.2¢ | $97.84 | $103.03 | +$5.19 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | UMassavg 46¢ | $41.86 | $42.32 | +$0.46 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Toledoavg 52¢ | $12.9 | $13.44 | +$0.54 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Toledoavg 52¢ | $23.4 | $11.27 | +$0.34 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
Invested
$4,999.99
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$52.08
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$4,586.98
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$132.32
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$643.44
Value
$660.2
PnL
+$16.76
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
VeryLucky888Invested
$186.9
Value
$188.7
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$97.84
Value
$103.03
PnL
+$5.19
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$41.86
Value
$42.32
PnL
+$0.46
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0.54
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$11.27
PnL
+$0.34
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.