UAB vs. Temple

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Temple (46%) · Temple at 52¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 14

UAB49¢Temple51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Temple

Consensus Traders

Temple 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

-$34.85

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 51.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTemple at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Temple

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UAB49%

Temple52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Temple6 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares28,528

Combined PnL-$180.28

UAB7 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares27,087

Combined PnL+$145.43

Temple — 46%UAB — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Templeavg 55¢	$14.7K	$14.6K	-$120.56	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
DO Donkey14CTR	UABavg 45¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$99.31	32% 7-15 (22)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	UABavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$17.78	44% 44-57 (101)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UABavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.96	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
Painfulvoid	Templeavg 55¢	$806.3	$754.99	-$51.31	0% 1-253 (254)
bakedbeanburritoCTR	UABavg 47¢	$470	$485	+$15	— 3-5 (8)
RN1	Templeavg 53¢	$420.4	$424.35	+$3.94	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
nigiri99	Templeavg 55¢	$216.15	$202.4	-$13.75	51% 568-535 (1103)
VeryLucky888<$100	Templeavg 54¢	$96.5	$97.39	+$0.89	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Templeavg 53¢	$93.38	$95.24	+$1.86	49% 525-557 (1082)
└ Temple leg	Templeavg 53¢	$52.47	$52.97	+$0.5
└ UAB leg	UABavg 45¢	$40.91	$42.27	+$1.36
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UABavg 45¢	$67.5	$68.25	+$0.75	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Templeavg 53¢	$53	$53.5	+$0.5	48% 281-299 (580)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	UABavg 44¢	$46.87	$47.4	+$0.53	30% 208-477 (685)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	UABavg 45¢	$9	$9.1	+$0.1	44% 87-112 (199)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Temple

Invested

$14,747.14

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$120.56

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Donkey14CTR

UAB

Invested

$8,937.97

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$99.31

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

0x0A77exmmCTR

UAB

Invested

$1,599.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.78

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

6512395314597884CTR

UAB

Invested

$1,076.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.96

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Painfulvoid

Temple

Invested

$806.3

Value

$754.99

PnL

-$51.31

Record

1-253 (254)

bakedbeanburritoCTR

UAB

Invested

$470

Value

$485

PnL

+$15

Record

—

3-5 (8)

RN1

Temple

Invested

$420.4

Value

$424.35

PnL

+$3.94

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

nigiri99

Temple

Invested

$216.15

Value

$202.4

PnL

-$13.75

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

VeryLucky888<$100

Temple

Invested

$96.5

Value

$97.39

PnL

+$0.89

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Temple

Invested

$93.38

Value

$95.24

PnL

+$1.86

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

Both legs:

Invested

$67.5

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

thirdt1me<$100

Temple

Invested

$53

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

babybellsCTR<$100

UAB

Invested

$46.87

Value

$47.4

PnL

+$0.53

Record

30%

208-477 (685)

efntrickCTR<$100

UAB

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

Research grade

NeutralTemple at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Temple

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Temple wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.