Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech, while the market favors Oklahoma State (52%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Oklahoma State (-3.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (71%) · Texas Tech at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Oklahoma State52¢Texas Tech48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$6.79

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma State 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma State52%

Texas Tech49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State2 traders

Total Value$720.6

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL+$17.45

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,443

Combined PnL-$24.24

Oklahoma State — 29%Texas Tech — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexas Tech 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Oklahoma Stateavg 50.2¢	$655.07	$671.56	+$16.49	51% 628-592 (1220)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texas Techavg 49.8¢	$540.62	$527.01	-$13.61	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
VeryLucky888CTR	Texas Techavg 50¢	$516.34	$466.54	-$8.16	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Texas Techavg 50¢	$198.25	$199.5	+$1.25	59% 3861-2655 (6516)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 50¢	$112.5	$110.25	-$2.25
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 49¢	$85.75	$89.25	+$3.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Texas Techavg 50¢	$146.3	$146.95	+$0.65	40% 453-675 (1128)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 50¢	$87.5	$85.75	-$1.75
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 49¢	$58.8	$61.2	+$2.4
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Texas Techavg 49¢	$134.26	$132.89	-$1.37	48% 654-704 (1358)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 50¢	$48.08	$49.04	+$0.96	5% 21-393 (414)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 49.6¢	$38.67	$37.83	-$0.84	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 49¢	$25.5	$25.24	-$0.26	37% 1136-1917 (3053)

nigiri99

Oklahoma State

Invested

$655.07

Value

$671.56

PnL

+$16.49

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

38791873984189CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$540.62

Value

$527.01

PnL

-$13.61

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

VeryLucky888CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$516.34

Value

$466.54

PnL

-$8.16

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

NM-PARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$198.25

Value

$199.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

3861-2655 (6516)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$112.550¢-$2.25

Oklahoma State$85.7549¢+$3.5

GC-PARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$146.3

Value

$146.95

PnL

+$0.65

Record

40%

453-675 (1128)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$87.550¢-$1.75

Oklahoma State$58.849¢+$2.4

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$134.26

Value

$132.89

PnL

-$1.37

Record

48%

654-704 (1358)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$48.08

Value

$49.04

PnL

+$0.96

Record

21-393 (414)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$38.67

Value

$37.83

PnL

-$0.84

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

LimousinCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$25.5

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$0.26

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma State 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexas Tech 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.