Spread: Oklahoma State (-2.5)
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (73%) · Texas Tech at 68¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Texas Tech
11
Texas Tech 73%
$5.7K
$994.68
50.7¢ → 68¢
+34% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas Tech at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Texas Techavg 41.8¢ | $825.92 | $1.3K | +$509.48 | 48% 3662-4031 (7693) |
 RN1 | Texas Techavg 68¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.55 | 54% 5793-4838 (10631) |
AU Aurelius7CTR | Oklahoma Stateavg 57¢ | $875 | $890.35 | +$15.35 | 4% 6-139 (145) |
BA banepirCTR | Oklahoma Stateavg 58¢ | $746.6 | $746.6 | +$0 | 56% 19-15 (34) |
PR primmCTR | Oklahoma Stateavg 32¢ | $520.19 | $512.22 | -$7.97 | 59% 1075-754 (1829) |
SN SnakeBall | Texas Techavg 43¢ | $252.46 | $440.34 | +$187.88 | 47% 1103-1245 (2348) |
NM NM-P | Texas Techavg 42.5¢ | $177.17 | $312.5 | +$135.34 | 59% 3902-2685 (6587) |
GC GC-P | Texas Techavg 43¢ | $150.5 | $262.5 | +$112 | 41% 498-709 (1207) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Texas Techavg 41.6¢ | $32.84 | $59.25 | +$26.41 | 50% 1931-1953 (3884) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Texas Techavg 67¢ | $24.69 | $25.24 | +$0.55 | 55% 1818-1517 (3335) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Texas Techavg 43¢ | $10.87 | $18.96 | +$8.09 | 53% 2122-1900 (4022) |
Invested
$825.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$509.48
Record
48%
3662-4031 (7693)
RN1Invested
$1,108.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.55
Record
54%
5793-4838 (10631)
Invested
$875
Value
$890.35
PnL
+$15.35
Record
4%
6-139 (145)
Invested
$746.6
Value
$746.6
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
19-15 (34)
Invested
$520.19
Value
$512.22
PnL
-$7.97
Record
59%
1075-754 (1829)
Invested
$252.46
Value
$440.34
PnL
+$187.88
Record
47%
1103-1245 (2348)
Invested
$177.17
Value
$312.5
PnL
+$135.34
Record
59%
3902-2685 (6587)
Invested
$150.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$112
Record
41%
498-709 (1207)
Invested
$32.84
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$26.41
Record
50%
1931-1953 (3884)
Invested
$24.69
Value
$25.24
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
1818-1517 (3335)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$8.09
Record
53%
2122-1900 (4022)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Texas Tech — $1.3K
RN1
Texas Tech — $1.1K
Aurelius7
CTROklahoma State — $890.35
banepir
CTROklahoma State — $746.6
primm
CTROklahoma State — $512.22
SnakeBall
Texas Tech — $440.34
NM-P
Texas Tech — $312.5
GC-P
Texas Tech — $262.5
Pan9X
Texas Tech — $59.25
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Texas Tech — $25.24