Spread: Texas Tech (-6.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (56%) · Texas Tech at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech98¢Oklahoma State2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$543.19

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 97.7¢

+78% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech98%

Oklahoma State2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,617

Combined PnL+$276.37

Oklahoma State4 traders

Total Value$80.01

Total Shares2,300

Combined PnL-$819.56

Texas Tech — 56%Oklahoma State — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Texas Techavg 59.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$454.28	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 59.5¢	$1.3K	$874.24	-$458.55
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 60.6¢	$610.76	$615.03	+$4.27
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Techavg 58.9¢	$605.7	$591.28	-$14.42	55% 1909-1576 (3485)
CM cm2897	Texas Techavg 39¢	$327.6	$575.4	+$247.8	49% 1217-1263 (2480)
JU justaluckydude	Texas Techavg 72¢	$347.04	$445.85	+$98.81	49% 627-647 (1274)
38 38791873984189	Texas Techavg 59.7¢	$866.27	$104.28	-$75.38	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
PA Pan9X	Texas Techavg 58.8¢	$155.92	$98.11	+$19.56	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 46¢	$91.54	$27.86	-$63.68	57% 3662-2723 (6385)
PR primmCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 36.1¢	$420.4	$25.61	-$394.79	59% 1099-762 (1861)
BI biying88888CTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 41¢	$380.07	$20.39	-$359.68	44% 235-299 (534)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 75¢	$7.56	$6.15	-$1.41	52% 2195-1999 (4194)

RN1ARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,943.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$454.28

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$1,332.7959.5¢-$458.55

Oklahoma State$610.7660.6¢+$4.27

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas Tech

Invested

$605.7

Value

$591.28

PnL

-$14.42

Record

55%

1909-1576 (3485)

cm2897

Texas Tech

Invested

$327.6

Value

$575.4

PnL

+$247.8

Record

49%

1217-1263 (2480)

justaluckydude

Texas Tech

Invested

$347.04

Value

$445.85

PnL

+$98.81

Record

49%

627-647 (1274)

38791873984189

Texas Tech

Invested

$866.27

Value

$104.28

PnL

-$75.38

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

Pan9X

Texas Tech

Invested

$155.92

Value

$98.11

PnL

+$19.56

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$91.54

Value

$27.86

PnL

-$63.68

Record

57%

3662-2723 (6385)

primmCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$420.4

Value

$25.61

PnL

-$394.79

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

biying88888CTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$380.07

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$359.68

Record

44%

235-299 (534)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$7.56

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$1.41

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.