Spread: Texas Tech (-5.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State (44%) · Oklahoma State at 59¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech42¢Oklahoma State58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma State

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma State 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$110.37

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech42%

Oklahoma State59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,935

Combined PnL-$143.55

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,366

Combined PnL+$33.18

Oklahoma State — 44%Texas Tech — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Oklahoma Stateavg 59¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$27.23	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1ARB<$100	Texas Techavg 43.4¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$80.03	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 43.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$72.34
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 59¢	$907.42	$899.73	-$7.69
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Texas Techavg 41¢	$927.59	$916.86	-$10.73	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
BI biying88888CTR	Texas Techavg 41¢	$421.07	$426.21	+$5.13	44% 231-293 (524)
CM cm2897CTR	Texas Techavg 41¢	$393.19	$397.98	+$4.79	49% 1214-1258 (2472)
38 38791873984189	Oklahoma Stateavg 59¢	$193.81	$92.95	-$86.86	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Texas Techavg 40¢	$27.25	$48.02	+$20.78	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 59¢	$40.87	$40.91	+$0.04	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 43¢	$20.64	$33.84	+$13.2	44% 227-289 (516)
NO NotJump<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 59¢	$59	$29.5	-$29.5	51% 1007-981 (1988)

primm

Oklahoma State

Invested

$3,242.21

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$27.23

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1ARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,533.41

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$80.03

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$1,625.9943.4¢-$72.34

Oklahoma State$907.4259¢-$7.69

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$927.59

Value

$916.86

PnL

-$10.73

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

biying88888CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$421.07

Value

$426.21

PnL

+$5.13

Record

44%

231-293 (524)

cm2897CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$393.19

Value

$397.98

PnL

+$4.79

Record

49%

1214-1258 (2472)

38791873984189

Oklahoma State

Invested

$193.81

Value

$92.95

PnL

-$86.86

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$27.25

Value

$48.02

PnL

+$20.78

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$40.87

Value

$40.91

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$20.64

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$13.2

Record

44%

227-289 (516)

NotJump<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$59

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$29.5

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.