Spread: Texas Tech (-4.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State (38%) · Oklahoma State at 55¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech46¢Oklahoma State54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma State

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma State 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$81.3

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech46%

Oklahoma State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State3 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares16,482

Combined PnL-$77.88

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares16,868

Combined PnL+$159.18

Oklahoma State — 38%Texas Tech — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO Johnny2d5	Oklahoma Stateavg 55.3¢	$7.8K	$7.7K	-$117.12	— 3-2 (5)
RN1CTR	Texas Techavg 45.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$51.72	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Texas Techavg 45¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$99.21	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
CM cm2897	Oklahoma Stateavg 51¢	$667.08	$706.32	+$39.24	49% 1214-1258 (2472)
PR primm	Oklahoma Stateavg 54¢	$551.34	$551.34	+$0	59% 1075-754 (1829)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texas Techavg 46.7¢	$520.2	$518.5	-$1.7	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Texas Techavg 45¢	$225	$232.5	+$7.5	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 45.3¢	$96.13	$98.58	+$2.45	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Texas Techavg 45.1¢	$74.8	$75.93	+$1.13	51% 1007-981 (1988)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 45.1¢	$45.1	$46.5	+$1.4
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 54¢	$29.7	$29.43	-$0.27

Johnny2d5

Oklahoma State

Invested

$7,830.58

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$117.12

Record

—

3-2 (5)

RN1CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$3,874.72

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$51.72

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,976.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$99.21

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

cm2897

Oklahoma State

Invested

$667.08

Value

$706.32

PnL

+$39.24

Record

49%

1214-1258 (2472)

primm

Oklahoma State

Invested

$551.34

Value

$551.34

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

38791873984189CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$520.2

Value

$518.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$225

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$96.13

Value

$98.58

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

NotJumpARB<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$74.8

Value

$75.93

PnL

+$1.13

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$45.145.1¢+$1.4

Oklahoma State$29.754¢-$0.27

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.