Spread: Texas Tech (-3.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State (45%) · Oklahoma State at 53¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech48¢Oklahoma State52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma State

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma State 45%

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

$296.38

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech48%

Oklahoma State53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech6 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares45,444

Combined PnL+$493.92

Oklahoma State5 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares44,200

Combined PnL-$197.54

Texas Tech — 55%Oklahoma State — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma State 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas Tech 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Texas Techavg 46.7¢	$13.0K	$13.2K	+$210.74	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
PR primm	Oklahoma Stateavg 53.9¢	$11.4K	$11.1K	-$289.92	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1CTR	Texas Techavg 48¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$181.7	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
VI vibing123	Oklahoma Stateavg 52.6¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$4.98	62% 1165-716 (1881)
LI lightotunnel35	Oklahoma Stateavg 54.2¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$124.96	25% 21-62 (83)
unknowngambler	Oklahoma Stateavg 51¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$93.5	— 5-5 (10)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texas Techavg 47.8¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$19.94	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
JU justaluckydude	Oklahoma Stateavg 38¢	$362.47	$484.8	+$128.82	49% 596-627 (1223)
PA Pan9XCTR	Texas Techavg 45.7¢	$331.34	$345.11	+$13.76	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Texas Techavg 41¢	$205	$310	+$105	55% 1818-1517 (3335)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 46.9¢	$51.85	$54.5	+$2.65	51% 1007-981 (1988)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$13,003.5

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$210.74

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

primm

Oklahoma State

Invested

$11,396.35

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$289.92

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$5,805.03

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$181.7

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

vibing123

Oklahoma State

Invested

$4,418.87

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$4.98

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

lightotunnel35

Oklahoma State

Invested

$4,048.45

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$124.96

Record

25%

21-62 (83)

unknowngambler

Oklahoma State

Invested

$3,178.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$93.5

Record

—

5-5 (10)

38791873984189CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,135.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$19.94

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

justaluckydude

Oklahoma State

Invested

$362.47

Value

$484.8

PnL

+$128.82

Record

49%

596-627 (1223)

Pan9XCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$331.34

Value

$345.11

PnL

+$13.76

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$205

Value

$310

PnL

+$105

Record

55%

1818-1517 (3335)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$51.85

Value

$54.5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma State 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas Tech 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.