Spread: Texas Tech (-14.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (58%) · Texas Tech at 82¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech82¢Oklahoma State18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 58%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$504.82

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 81.5¢

+42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech82%

Oklahoma State19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares14,405

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Oklahoma State5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares12,524

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Texas Tech — 58%Oklahoma State — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Texas Techavg 59.6¢	$4.3K	$5.8K	+$1.6K	59% 1099-762 (1861)
RN1	Texas Techavg 54¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$227.45	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
CM cm2897CTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 37.8¢	$3.5K	$1.7K	$-1.8K	49% 1217-1263 (2480)
38 38791873984189	Texas Techavg 56.8¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	+$159.66	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Techavg 56.5¢	$842.16	$648.58	+$105.42	55% 1909-1576 (3485)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 43.1¢	$333.86	$267.08	-$66.78	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
BI biying88888CTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 47.5¢	$703.08	$266.55	-$436.53	44% 235-299 (534)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 48¢	$372.96	$139.86	-$233.1	12% 64-472 (536)
PA Pan9X	Texas Techavg 58.7¢	$171.97	$133.86	+$0.22	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
NO NotJump<$100	Texas Techavg 63.2¢	$52.43	$54.3	+$1.87	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Texas Techavg 40¢	$16.4	$33.62	+$17.22	49% 627-647 (1274)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 46¢	$73.6	$28.8	-$44.8	44% 237-303 (540)

primm

Texas Tech

Invested

$4,252.75

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

1099-762 (1861)

RN1

Texas Tech

Invested

$3,118.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$227.45

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

cm2897CTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$3,528.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

49%

1217-1263 (2480)

38791873984189

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,592.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$159.66

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas Tech

Invested

$842.16

Value

$648.58

PnL

+$105.42

Record

55%

1909-1576 (3485)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$333.86

Value

$267.08

PnL

-$66.78

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

biying88888CTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$703.08

Value

$266.55

PnL

-$436.53

Record

44%

235-299 (534)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$372.96

Value

$139.86

PnL

-$233.1

Record

12%

64-472 (536)

Pan9X

Texas Tech

Invested

$171.97

Value

$133.86

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

NotJump<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$52.43

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$1.87

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

justaluckydude<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$16.4

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$17.22

Record

49%

627-647 (1274)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$73.6

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$44.8

Record

44%

237-303 (540)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.