Spread: Texas Tech (-10.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (29%) · Texas Tech at 91¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Texas Tech91¢Oklahoma State9¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$844.96

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 90.5¢

+33% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech91%

Oklahoma State10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,440

Combined PnL+$778.98

Oklahoma State5 traders

Total Value$609.21

Total Shares1,669

Combined PnL+$65.98

Texas Tech — 29%Oklahoma State — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Texas Techavg 68.4¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$734.72	8% 18-208 (226)
RN1ARB<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 32¢	$883.64	$1.1K	+$197.67	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 45.5¢	$394.19	$584.2	+$190.01
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 32¢	$489.45	$497.11	+$7.66
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 55¢	$979.75	$618.31	-$188.53	49% 627-647 (1274)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 56.9¢	$287.85	$344.06	+$56.21
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 55¢	$471.37	$274.25	-$244.73
38 38791873984189CTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 30.6¢	$622.24	$376.88	+$84.99	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 31¢	$228.33	$104.52	+$53.83	55% 1909-1576 (3485)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 50.5¢	$87.53	$55.51	-$32.02	44% 237-303 (540)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 58¢	$91.64	$50.56	-$41.08	57% 3662-2723 (6385)
PA Pan9X	Texas Techavg 51.5¢	$161.29	$33.43	+$44.26	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 43¢	$21.5	$21.75	+$0.25	51% 1040-1018 (2058)

JokerTheClown

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,327.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$734.72

Record

18-208 (226)

RN1ARB<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$883.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$197.67

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$394.1945.5¢+$190.01

Oklahoma State$489.4532¢+$7.66

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$979.75

Value

$618.31

PnL

-$188.53

Record

49%

627-647 (1274)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$287.8556.9¢+$56.21

Oklahoma State$471.3755¢-$244.73

38791873984189CTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$622.24

Value

$376.88

PnL

+$84.99

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$228.33

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$53.83

Record

55%

1909-1576 (3485)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$87.53

Value

$55.51

PnL

-$32.02

Record

44%

237-303 (540)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$91.64

Value

$50.56

PnL

-$41.08

Record

57%

3662-2723 (6385)

Pan9X

Texas Tech

Invested

$161.29

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$44.26

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.