Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Texas State vs. Oregon State: O/U 69.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 46¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 46¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,933

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares10,654

Combined PnL-$201.75

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 68¢	$4.3K	$3.3K	-$968.75	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
betdge	Underavg 33.7¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$402.18	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 63.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$63.32	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.4¢	$1.0K	$868.81	-$180.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 30¢	$201.6	$319.2	+$117.6
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 64.1¢	$845.65	$880.98	+$71.87	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.5¢	$357.06	$537.6	+$187.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.1¢	$458.54	$343.38	-$115.16
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Underavg 41¢	$634.43	$804.64	+$170.21	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 58.5¢	$751.67	$742.64	-$9.04	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.5¢	$585	$480	-$105
└ Under leg	Underavg 33¢	$166.67	$262.64	+$95.96
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 67.3¢	$1.0K	$737.86	-$297.14	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 69.1¢	$514.84	$376.39	-$138.45	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 44¢	$196.68	$207.86	+$11.18	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 59¢	$123.67	$135.79	+$12.13	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 32.1¢	$60.26	$50.56	+$16.43	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 32¢	$3.52	$5.94	+$2.42	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 32¢	$0.42	$0.62	+$0.2	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,250

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$968.75

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

betdge

Under

Invested

$2,884.29

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$402.18

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,251.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$63.32

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Over$1,049.7363.4¢-$180.92

Under$201.630¢+$117.6

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$845.65

Value

$880.98

PnL

+$71.87

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$357.0634.5¢+$187.04

Over$458.5464.1¢-$115.16

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Under

Invested

$634.43

Value

$804.64

PnL

+$170.21

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$751.67

Value

$742.64

PnL

-$9.04

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Over$58558.5¢-$105

Under$166.6733¢+$95.96

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$1,035

Value

$737.86

PnL

-$297.14

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$514.84

Value

$376.39

PnL

-$138.45

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$196.68

Value

$207.86

PnL

+$11.18

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$123.67

Value

$135.79

PnL

+$12.13

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$60.26

Value

$50.56

PnL

+$16.43

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$3.52

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.