Spread: Oregon State (-6.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Texas State (63%) · Texas State at 55¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

Oregon State46¢Texas State54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas State

Consensus Traders

Texas State 63%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$67.32

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 54.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon State46%

Texas State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas State5 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,344

Combined PnL+$298.01

Oregon State3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares11,668

Combined PnL-$230.69

Texas State — 63%Oregon State — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Texas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (8 on Texas State) disagree here.

whaleTexas State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTexas State 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas State 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Texas Stateavg 52¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$249.96	48% 405-446 (851)
The-JokerCTR	Oregon Stateavg 48.7¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$91.5	68% 1574-742 (2316)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Oregon Stateavg 49¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$138.88	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
HO HomeRunHazard	Texas Stateavg 50¢	$604	$646.28	+$42.28	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
HI hi774c<$100	Texas Stateavg 50¢	$63.86	$68.33	+$4.47	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
38 38791873984189<$100	Texas Stateavg 51¢	$42.33	$44.41	+$1.25	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 49¢	$6.17	$5.85	-$0.31	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Texas Stateavg 50¢	$1	$1.07	+$0.05	55% 790-658 (1448)

Multicoloured-Serf

Texas State

Invested

$6,713.92

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$249.96

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

The-JokerCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$2,973.68

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$91.5

Record

68%

1574-742 (2316)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$2,721.95

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$138.88

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

HomeRunHazard

Texas State

Invested

$604

Value

$646.28

PnL

+$42.28

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

hi774c<$100

Texas State

Invested

$63.86

Value

$68.33

PnL

+$4.47

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

38791873984189<$100

Texas State

Invested

$42.33

Value

$44.41

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$6.17

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

pltrkr111<$100

Texas State

Invested

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Texas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (8 on Texas State) disagree here.

whaleTexas State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTexas State 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas State 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.