Texas vs. LSU: O/U 45.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$754.17

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 51.5¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,337

Combined PnL-$632.55

Over2 traders

Total Value$895.55

Total Shares1,809

Combined PnL-$121.61

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 43¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$623.95	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
RN1	Underavg 43.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$7.89	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 56¢	$985.04	$853.12	-$131.92	59% 1044-726 (1770)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$160.67	$165.36	+$4.69	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$82.79	$87.48	+$4.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$77.88	$77.88	+$0
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 26¢	$130	$137.5	+$7.5	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 46¢	$85.19	$86.04	+$1.85	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 43¢	$96.92	$69.14	-$27.78	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$32.12	$42.43	+$10.31	51% 970-935 (1905)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$64.44	$35.23	+$1.94	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,753.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$623.95

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,018.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.89

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$985.04

Value

$853.12

PnL

-$131.92

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$160.67

Value

$165.36

PnL

+$4.69

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Both legs:

Over$82.7953¢+$4.69

Under$77.8844¢+$0

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$130

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$85.19

Value

$86.04

PnL

+$1.85

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$96.92

Value

$69.14

PnL

-$27.78

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.12

Value

$42.43

PnL

+$10.31

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$64.44

Value

$35.23

PnL

+$1.94

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.