Spread: LSU (-7.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (50%) · Texas at 68¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 15

LSU32¢Texas68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas

Consensus Traders

Texas 50%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

-$178.14

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 68¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU32%

Texas68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas6 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares20,804

Combined PnL+$1.3K

LSU6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares18,036

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Texas — 50%LSU — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (5 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrLSU 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Texasavg 58.1¢	$7.3K	$8.4K	+$1.1K	23% 18-61 (79)
RN1	Texasavg 57.5¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$251.8	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	LSUavg 42¢	$4.1K	$3.3K	-$829.76	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
CM cm2897CTR	LSUavg 42.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$339.09	49% 1204-1246 (2450)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texasavg 58.6¢	$599.95	$599.34	-$0.61	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
BI biying88888CTR	LSUavg 41.7¢	$698.98	$561.44	-$137.54	44% 224-287 (511)
PR primmCTR	LSUavg 44.5¢	$676.4	$509.2	-$167.2	59% 1044-726 (1770)
38 38791873984189	Texasavg 57.2¢	$1.1K	$463.43	+$9.01	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	LSUavg 43¢	$121.69	$94.81	-$26.88	43% 216-282 (498)
NO NotJump<$100	Texasavg 58¢	$58	$58.5	+$0.5	51% 970-935 (1905)
PA Pan9X	Texasavg 61.7¢	$178.73	$37.66	+$1.86	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	LSUavg 39¢	$7.86	$6.65	-$1.21	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

lightotunnel35

Texas

Invested

$7,335.47

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

23%

18-61 (79)

RN1

Texas

Invested

$4,244.25

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$251.8

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

LSU

Invested

$4,100

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$829.76

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

cm2897CTR

LSU

Invested

$2,010.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$339.09

Record

49%

1204-1246 (2450)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas

Invested

$599.95

Value

$599.34

PnL

-$0.61

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

biying88888CTR

LSU

Invested

$698.98

Value

$561.44

PnL

-$137.54

Record

44%

224-287 (511)

primmCTR

LSU

Invested

$676.4

Value

$509.2

PnL

-$167.2

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

38791873984189

Texas

Invested

$1,052.95

Value

$463.43

PnL

+$9.01

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

NatoAlfistaCTR

LSU

Invested

$121.69

Value

$94.81

PnL

-$26.88

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

NotJump<$100

Texas

Invested

$58

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Pan9X

Texas

Invested

$178.73

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$1.86

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrockCTR<$100

LSU

Invested

$7.86

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (5 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrLSU 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.