Spread: LSU (-6.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold LSU (50%) · LSU at 57¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

LSU57¢Texas43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LSU

Consensus Traders

LSU 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$660.15

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 57¢

+27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU57%

Texas43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares15,525

Combined PnL-$438.83

Texas5 traders

Total Value$947.42

Total Shares2,007

Combined PnL-$221.33

LSU — 50%Texas — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (8 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	LSUavg 45¢	$5.8K	$5.4K	-$373.73	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
RN1ARB<$100	LSUavg 41¢	$685.44	$705.8	+$20.36	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ LSU leg	LSUavg 41¢	$349.44	$357.8	+$8.36
└ Texas leg	Texasavg 56¢	$336	$348	+$12
PR primmCTR	Texasavg 58.8¢	$928.36	$687.26	-$241.1	59% 1044-726 (1770)
SN SnakeBall	LSUavg 45¢	$536.49	$500.72	-$35.77	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LSUavg 41¢	$232.51	$238.19	+$5.67	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	LSUavg 44¢	$220	$210	-$10	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
LI LightParadox	LSUavg 46¢	$230	$205	-$25	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texasavg 53¢	$141.51	$154.86	+$13.35	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texasavg 54.8¢	$92.04	$44.23	+$3.19	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Texasavg 54¢	$36.36	$39.05	+$2.69	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Texasavg 54¢	$21.48	$22.02	+$0.54	51% 970-935 (1905)

HomeRunHazard

LSU

Invested

$5,805.75

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$373.73

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

RN1ARB<$100

LSU

Invested

$685.44

Value

$705.8

PnL

+$20.36

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Invested

$928.36

Value

$687.26

PnL

-$241.1

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

SnakeBall

LSU

Invested

$536.49

Value

$500.72

PnL

-$35.77

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LSU

Invested

$232.51

Value

$238.19

PnL

+$5.67

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

LSU

Invested

$220

Value

$210

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

LightParadox

LSU

Invested

$230

Value

$205

PnL

-$25

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

38791873984189CTR

Texas

Invested

$141.51

Value

$154.86

PnL

+$13.35

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$92.04

Value

$44.23

PnL

+$3.19

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$36.36

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$2.69

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$21.48

Value

$22.02

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

LSU

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (8 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LSU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.