Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas, while the market favors LSU (72%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: LSU (-2.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (55%) · Texas at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

LSU72¢Texas28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas

Consensus Traders

Texas 55%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$492.46

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 28.5¢

-29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU72%

Texas28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU5 traders

Total Value$908.87

Total Shares1,506

Combined PnL+$15.24

Texas6 traders

Total Value$871.54

Total Shares3,453

Combined PnL-$507.7

LSU — 45%Texas — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LSU) and the top 1000 (11 on Texas) disagree here.

ctrTexas 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	LSUavg 57¢	$445.74	$469.2	+$23.46	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LimousinCTR	Texasavg 38¢	$714.3	$451.14	-$263.16	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	LSUavg 62¢	$385.8	$373.36	-$12.45	49% 389-413 (802)
PR primmCTR	Texasavg 42.6¢	$454.47	$256.08	-$198.39	59% 1044-726 (1770)
CM cm2897CTR	Texasavg 42¢	$108.78	$62.16	-$46.62	49% 1204-1246 (2450)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Texasavg 38¢	$57.34	$60.35	+$3.02	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texasavg 43.9¢	$1.1K	$37.78	-$2.85	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
NO NotJump<$100	LSUavg 59¢	$29.5	$30	+$0.5	51% 970-935 (1905)
PA Pan9X<$100	LSUavg 57.2¢	$88.24	$19.01	+$2.65	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	LSUavg 56¢	$16.22	$17.3	+$1.08	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Texasavg 37¢	$3.73	$4.03	+$0.3	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

RN1

LSU

Invested

$445.74

Value

$469.2

PnL

+$23.46

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LimousinCTR

Texas

Invested

$714.3

Value

$451.14

PnL

-$263.16

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

LSU

Invested

$385.8

Value

$373.36

PnL

-$12.45

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

primmCTR

Texas

Invested

$454.47

Value

$256.08

PnL

-$198.39

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

cm2897CTR

Texas

Invested

$108.78

Value

$62.16

PnL

-$46.62

Record

49%

1204-1246 (2450)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$57.34

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$3.02

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

38791873984189CTR

Texas

Invested

$1,125.76

Value

$37.78

PnL

-$2.85

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

NotJump<$100

LSU

Invested

$29.5

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Pan9X<$100

LSU

Invested

$88.24

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$2.65

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

LSU

Invested

$16.22

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$1.08

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$3.73

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

AvoidTexas at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LSU) and the top 1000 (11 on Texas) disagree here.

ctrTexas 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texas 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.