Troy vs. South Alabama

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama (75%) · South Alabama at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Troy16¢South Alabama84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Alabama

Consensus Traders

South Alabama 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$74.45

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 84.5¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Alabama at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Troy16%

South Alabama85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Alabama9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,369

Combined PnL+$68.32

Troy3 traders

Total Value$64.01

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$6.14

South Alabama — 75%Troy — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	South Alabamaavg 76.4¢	$571.44	$632.06	+$60.61	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
CA CandleHammerDrums	South Alabamaavg 76¢	$156.59	$157.62	+$1.03	48% 547-581 (1128)
BA babybells	South Alabamaavg 76¢	$100.38	$101.04	+$0.66	31% 219-484 (703)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Troyavg 20.2¢	$106.08	$95.27	-$10.8	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
└ Troy leg	Troyavg 20.2¢	$75.88	$61.87	-$14
└ South Alabama leg	South Alabamaavg 75.5¢	$30.2	$33.4	+$3.2
dips.<$100	South Alabamaavg 79¢	$75.84	$81.12	+$5.28	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
TH thirdt1me<$100	South Alabamaavg 76¢	$76	$76.5	+$0.5	48% 294-314 (608)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Troyavg 42¢	$53.39	$57.2	+$3.81	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
VeryLucky888<$100	South Alabamaavg 57¢	$87.41	$34.05	+$0.03	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
SM smithagent<$100	South Alabamaavg 80¢	$8	$8.45	+$0.45	45% 717-880 (1597)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	South Alabamaavg 80¢	$8	$8.45	+$0.45	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Troyavg 29¢	$2.94	$4.56	+$1.62	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	South Alabamaavg 69¢	$3.45	$2.75	-$0.7	83% 802-165 (967)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Troyavg 31¢	$1.55	$2.25	+$0.7	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

South Alabama

Invested

$571.44

Value

$632.06

PnL

+$60.61

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

CandleHammerDrums

South Alabama

Invested

$156.59

Value

$157.62

PnL

+$1.03

Record

48%

547-581 (1128)

babybells

South Alabama

Invested

$100.38

Value

$101.04

PnL

+$0.66

Record

31%

219-484 (703)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Troy

Invested

$106.08

Value

$95.27

PnL

-$10.8

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Both legs:

Troy$75.8820.2¢-$14

South Alabama$30.275.5¢+$3.2

dips.<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$75.84

Value

$81.12

PnL

+$5.28

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

thirdt1me<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$76

Value

$76.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Troy

Invested

$53.39

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$3.81

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

VeryLucky888<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$87.41

Value

$34.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

smithagent<$100

South Alabama

Invested

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

South Alabama

Invested

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Troy

Invested

$2.94

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.7

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Troy

Invested

$1.55

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Alabama at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.