Spread: Texas A&M (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (78%) · Tennessee at 99¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Texas A&M<1¢Tennessee>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Tennessee 78%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 99.5¢

+91% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas A&M1%

Tennessee99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas A&M2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares14,515

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Tennessee7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,020

Combined PnL-$443.44

Texas A&M — 22%Tennessee — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Texas A&Mavg 47.7¢	$6.2K	$3.2K	$-3.0K	59% 948-662 (1610)
RN1	Tennesseeavg 51.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$174.64	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tennesseeavg 52.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$114.12	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
38 38791873984189	Tennesseeavg 51.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$84.49	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
65 6512395314597884	Tennesseeavg 51.5¢	$618	$588	-$30	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
VI vibing123CTR	Texas A&Mavg 50.3¢	$796.37	$308.91	-$487.46	62% 1142-703 (1845)
PA Pan9X	Tennesseeavg 52.2¢	$305	$286.16	-$18.84	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Tennesseeavg 53¢	$265	$245	-$20	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
NO NotJump<$100	Tennesseeavg 55¢	$12.39	$11.04	-$1.35	52% 895-837 (1732)

primmCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$6,168.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

RN1

Tennessee

Invested

$3,127.65

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$174.64

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tennessee

Invested

$1,920.06

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$114.12

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

38791873984189

Tennessee

Invested

$1,558.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$84.49

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

6512395314597884

Tennessee

Invested

$618

Value

$588

PnL

-$30

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

vibing123CTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$796.37

Value

$308.91

PnL

-$487.46

Record

62%

1142-703 (1845)

Pan9X

Tennessee

Invested

$305

Value

$286.16

PnL

-$18.84

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Tennessee

Invested

$265

Value

$245

PnL

-$20

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

NotJump<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$12.39

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.