Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas A&M, while the market favors Tennessee (91%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Tennessee (-6.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas A&M (22%) · Texas A&M at 9.0¢ · $1000 held · ended Nov 14

Tennessee91¢Texas A&M9¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas A&M

Consensus Traders

Texas A&M 22%

Total Value

$999.95

Combined PnL

-$124.35

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 9¢

-81% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas A&M at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas A&M

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Tennessee 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tennessee91%

Texas A&M9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas A&M2 traders

Total Value$307.13

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$169.84

Tennessee7 traders

Total Value$692.81

Total Shares1,156

Combined PnL+$45.49

Texas A&M — 22%Tennessee — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888CTR	Texas A&Mavg 46¢	$470.12	$301.49	-$168.63	44% 206-263 (469)
RN1	Tennesseeavg 54.7¢	$232.43	$296.24	+$63.81	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Tennesseeavg 54¢	$270	$262.5	-$7.5	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
38 38791873984189<$100	Tennesseeavg 54¢	$75.06	$72.98	-$2.08	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tennesseeavg 54¢	$51.66	$25.23	-$6.48	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
LI LightParadox<$100	Tennesseeavg 32¢	$24.03	$21.77	-$2.25	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
TA takeormake<$100	Tennesseeavg 29¢	$12.36	$12.36	+$0	57% 3576-2662 (6238)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Texas A&Mavg 68¢	$6.85	$5.64	-$1.21	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Tennesseeavg 29¢	$1.74	$1.74	-$0	50% 3828-3802 (7630)

biying88888CTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$470.12

Value

$301.49

PnL

-$168.63

Record

44%

206-263 (469)

RN1

Tennessee

Invested

$232.43

Value

$296.24

PnL

+$63.81

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Tennessee

Invested

$270

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

38791873984189<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$75.06

Value

$72.98

PnL

-$2.08

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9X<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$51.66

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$6.48

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

LightParadox<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$24.03

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$2.25

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

takeormake<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$12.36

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3576-2662 (6238)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Texas A&M

Invested

$6.85

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

6512395314597884<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

Research grade

AvoidTexas A&M at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texas A&M

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Tennessee 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas A&M wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.