Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tennessee, while the market favors Texas A&M (65%). 12 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Tennessee (-3.5)

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (80%) · Tennessee at 36¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Tennessee36¢Texas A&M64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Tennessee 80%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$171.64

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 35.5¢

-20% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Texas A&M 65%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tennessee36%

Texas A&M65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tennessee12 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,485

Combined PnL-$212.52

Texas A&M3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL+$40.88

Tennessee — 80%Texas A&M — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Tennesseeavg 44.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$86.13	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
PR primm	Texas A&Mavg 59¢	$705.64	$741.52	+$35.88	59% 931-653 (1584)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Tennesseeavg 45¢	$496.51	$529.61	+$33.1	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Tennesseeavg 45.5¢	$522.71	$511.44	-$11.27	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Tennesseeavg 45.5¢	$567.13	$461.58	-$105.55	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
HO HomeRunHazard	Texas A&Mavg 60¢	$300	$305	+$5	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Tennesseeavg 44.8¢	$254.42	$249.69	-$4.73	35% 378-716 (1094)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tennesseeavg 44.3¢	$543.42	$156.08	-$32.5	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
PA Pan9XCTR	Tennesseeavg 45¢	$178.43	$149.36	+$8.32	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
LI LimousinCTR	Tennesseeavg 39¢	$127.23	$123.97	-$3.26	36% 979-1704 (2683)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Tennesseeavg 43¢	$100.86	$89.13	-$11.73	47% 936-1037 (1973)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Tennesseeavg 42¢	$21	$22	+$1	52% 852-801 (1653)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Texas A&Mavg 61¢	$7.93	$7.93	+$0	54% 286-244 (530)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Tennesseeavg 38¢	$1.45	$1.45	-$0	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Tennesseeavg 43¢	$5.78	$0.84	+$0.23	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

RN1CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$1,385.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$86.13

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

primm

Texas A&M

Invested

$705.64

Value

$741.52

PnL

+$35.88

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Tennessee

Invested

$496.51

Value

$529.61

PnL

+$33.1

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$522.71

Value

$511.44

PnL

-$11.27

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$567.13

Value

$461.58

PnL

-$105.55

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

HomeRunHazard

Texas A&M

Invested

$300

Value

$305

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

SlickRick123CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$254.42

Value

$249.69

PnL

-$4.73

Record

35%

378-716 (1094)

38791873984189CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$543.42

Value

$156.08

PnL

-$32.5

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Pan9XCTR

Tennessee

Invested

$178.43

Value

$149.36

PnL

+$8.32

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

LimousinCTR

Tennessee

Invested

$127.23

Value

$123.97

PnL

-$3.26

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

SnakeBallCTR

Tennessee

Invested

$100.86

Value

$89.13

PnL

-$11.73

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$21

Value

$22

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Texas A&M

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$5.78

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Texas A&M 65%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.