Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 14 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Temple vs. Navy: O/U 53.5

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 47¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 7

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 46.5¢

-11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares67,723

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,159

Combined PnL-$103.21

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$21.4K	$21.6K	+$254.6	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Underavg 91.5¢	$9.3K	$4.7K	$-4.6K	49% 451-468 (919)
nigiri99	Overavg 54.6¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$85.79	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$85.62	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$60.18	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$75.17
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$9.05	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$974.32	$1.0K	+$35.13	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$2.7K	$577.05	-$9.29	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$318.5	$325.5	+$7	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$583.98	$277.14	+$15.81	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$240.54	$239.28	-$1.26	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$124.85	$124.2	-$0.65	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 55¢	$65.45	$58.73	-$0.27	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
RN1<$100	Overavg 64.1¢	$58.8	$49.1	-$9.7	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$51.51	$47.38	-$4.13	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$22.39	$24.21	+$1.82	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 85¢	$20.11	$12.66	-$7.45	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 12.2¢	$0.75	$2.86	+$2.11	56% 8738-6795 (15533)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$21,376.63

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$254.6

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Under

Invested

$9,258.89

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$4,349.2

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$85.79

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$3,447.09

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$85.62

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,942.13

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$60.18

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Both legs:

Over$1,619.9854¢-$15

Under$1,322.1544¢+$75.17

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,959.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$9.05

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$974.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.13

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,725.91

Value

$577.05

PnL

-$9.29

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$318.5

Value

$325.5

PnL

+$7

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$583.98

Value

$277.14

PnL

+$15.81

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$240.54

Value

$239.28

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$124.85

Value

$124.2

PnL

-$0.65

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$65.45

Value

$58.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$58.8

Value

$49.1

PnL

-$9.7

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.51

Value

$47.38

PnL

-$4.13

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.39

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$20.11

Value

$12.66

PnL

-$7.45

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.75

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$2.11

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.