TCU vs. Arizona

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona (35%) · Arizona at 72¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 7

TCU28¢Arizona72¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arizona

Consensus Traders

Arizona 35%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

-$116.58

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 71.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralArizona at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona

6 of 17 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TCU28%

Arizona72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TCU11 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares17,685

Combined PnL-$18.57

Arizona6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares14,063

Combined PnL-$98.01

TCU — 65%Arizona — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Arizona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTCU 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTCU 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000TCU 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 71.6¢	$22.8K	$22.4K	-$14.8	42% 8093-11300 (19393)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 71.6¢	$16.7K	$16.2K	-$116.73
└ TCU leg	TCUavg 30¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$101.93
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	TCUavg 29¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0.13	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
65 6512395314597884	Arizonaavg 69.8¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$60.5	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
VeryLucky888	Arizonaavg 68¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$18.98	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
38 38791873984189	Arizonaavg 70¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$15.25	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
SE sentrio	Arizonaavg 70¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$39.45	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
VigorishVaultCTR	TCUavg 32.7¢	$1.0K	$984.38	-$36.02	64% 23-13 (36)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	TCUavg 31¢	$381.79	$387.95	+$6.16	47% 369-419 (788)
RN1CTR	TCUavg 27¢	$213.84	$217.8	+$3.96	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
DA darkumbreon88	Arizonaavg 70¢	$203.32	$201.93	-$1.4	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	TCUavg 29¢	$173.4	$173.3	-$0.09	55% 3126-2515 (5641)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	TCUavg 27¢	$95.65	$97.42	+$1.77	52% 14617-13288 (27905)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	TCUavg 31¢	$78.95	$80.22	+$1.27	51% 2006-1938 (3944)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arizonaavg 70¢	$55.3	$54.9	-$0.4	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	TCUavg 25¢	$33.25	$38.57	+$3.33	50% 38089-37336 (75425)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	TCUavg 28.6¢	$24.03	$24.36	+$1.26	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	TCUavg 29.6¢	$5.62	$5.23	-$0.39	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	TCUavg 27¢	$0.74	$0.79	+$0.07	48% 7430-7967 (15397)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$22,838.52

Value

$22.4K

PnL

-$14.8

Record

42%

8093-11300 (19393)

Both legs:

Arizona$16,722.9271.6¢-$116.73

TCU$6,115.630¢+$101.93

HomeRunHazardCTR

TCU

Invested

$3,216.38

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

6512395314597884

Arizona

Invested

$3,213.26

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$60.5

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

VeryLucky888

Arizona

Invested

$2,352.93

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$18.98

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

38791873984189

Arizona

Invested

$2,155.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15.25

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

sentrio

Arizona

Invested

$1,841.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$39.45

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

VigorishVaultCTR

TCU

Invested

$1,020.4

Value

$984.38

PnL

-$36.02

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

TCU

Invested

$381.79

Value

$387.95

PnL

+$6.16

Record

47%

369-419 (788)

RN1CTR

TCU

Invested

$213.84

Value

$217.8

PnL

+$3.96

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

darkumbreon88

Arizona

Invested

$203.32

Value

$201.93

PnL

-$1.4

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

TCU

Invested

$173.4

Value

$173.3

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

3126-2515 (5641)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$95.65

Value

$97.42

PnL

+$1.77

Record

52%

14617-13288 (27905)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$78.95

Value

$80.22

PnL

+$1.27

Record

51%

2006-1938 (3944)

Pan9X<$100

Arizona

Invested

$55.3

Value

$54.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$33.25

Value

$38.57

PnL

+$3.33

Record

50%

38089-37336 (75425)

LimousinCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$24.03

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$1.26

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

takeormakeCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.39

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

OddstormCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

Research grade

NeutralArizona at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona

6 of 17 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Arizona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTCU 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTCU 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000TCU 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.