Syracuse vs. NC State: O/U 53.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 52¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$47.2K
-$1.42
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Overavg 51¢ | $14.0K | $14.0K | -$0 | 49% 635-674 (1309) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $13.6K | $13.6K | +$0 | 50% 2522-2477 (4999) |
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $9.8K | $9.7K | -$100 | 63% 26-15 (41) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $9.2K | $9.3K | +$92.17 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $568.83 | $574.88 | +$6.04 | 48% 3212-3512 (6724) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $37.23 | $37.6 | +$0.37 | 48% 2070-2232 (4302) |
Invested
$14,045.09
Value
$14.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
635-674 (1309)
Invested
$13,603.13
Value
$13.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2522-2477 (4999)
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$9,799.98
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$100
Record
63%
26-15 (41)
Invested
$9,190.09
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$92.17
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$568.83
Value
$574.88
PnL
+$6.04
Record
48%
3212-3512 (6724)
Invested
$37.23
Value
$37.6
PnL
+$0.37
Record
48%
2070-2232 (4302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.