Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Syracuse vs. NC State: O/U 41.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 23¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$119.98

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 23¢

-58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,497

Combined PnL-$93.22

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,613

Combined PnL-$26.76

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 42.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$90.66	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Underavg 57.5¢	$947.6	$964.08	+$16.48	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$677.6	$521.01	-$156.59	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 53.1¢	$430.87	$482.93	+$52.06	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 58.8¢	$308.69	$314.93	+$6.24	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 42¢	$117.63	$165.44	+$47.81	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$36.65	$43.86	+$7.2	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Overavg 43.3¢	$29.1	$26.54	-$2.56	47% 99-111 (210)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$1.64	$1.68	+$0.04	52% 833-779 (1612)

primm

Over

Invested

$1,445.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$90.66

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$947.6

Value

$964.08

PnL

+$16.48

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$677.6

Value

$521.01

PnL

-$156.59

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$430.87

Value

$482.93

PnL

+$52.06

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$308.69

Value

$314.93

PnL

+$6.24

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$117.63

Value

$165.44

PnL

+$47.81

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.65

Value

$43.86

PnL

+$7.2

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Over

Invested

$29.1

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$2.56

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.