Southern Utah vs. Portland State

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Utah (67%) · Southern Utah at 92¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Southern Utah92¢Portland State8¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Southern Utah

Consensus Traders

Southern Utah 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$6.05

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 91.5¢

+11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouthern Utah at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Utah

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Southern Utah92%

Portland State9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Southern Utah12 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares9,594

Combined PnL+$201.19

Portland State6 traders

Total Value$874.61

Total Shares4,864

Combined PnL-$207.23

Southern Utah — 67%Portland State — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Southern Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouthern Utah 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Utah 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scootergene	Southern Utahavg 83.3¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$259.62	4% 6-137 (143)
OM omnibus-076daa	Southern Utahavg 76.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$186.6	45% 445-541 (986)
RN1	Southern Utahavg 86.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$174.45	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
RU RUDY2323	Southern Utahavg 85¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$76.47	42% 13-18 (31)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Portland Stateavg 19.5¢	$843.86	$694.86	-$149	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189	Southern Utahavg 89.9¢	$1.2K	$528.47	-$92.86	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Southern Utahavg 90¢	$369.73	$326.26	-$43.48	48% 465-495 (960)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Southern Utahavg 81¢	$202.49	$202.49	+$0	37% 497-832 (1329)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Southern Utahavg 79¢	$124.14	$127.29	+$3.14	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Portland Stateavg 30.3¢	$126.05	$118.65	-$7.41	56% 748-599 (1347)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Portland Stateavg 41.2¢	$112.2	$111.2	-$1	53% 750-672 (1422)
└ Southern Utah leg	Southern Utahavg 50¢	$52.5	$88.73	+$36.22
└ Portland State leg	Portland Stateavg 41.2¢	$59.7	$22.48	-$37.23
TH thirdt1meCTR	Portland Stateavg 19.6¢	$104.36	$45.45	-$49.02	48% 243-264 (507)
PA Pan9X	Southern Utahavg 83.4¢	$219.61	$19.37	-$14.56	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Southern Utahavg 69¢	$14.72	$15.25	+$0.53	37% 841-1416 (2257)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Portland Stateavg 29.9¢	$10	$9.52	-$0.48	39% 406-629 (1035)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Southern Utahavg 79.6¢	$9.22	$9.39	+$0.17	62% 187-114 (301)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Portland Stateavg 24¢	$4.32	$3.42	-$0.9	25% 71-217 (288)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Portland Stateavg 22¢	$3.15	$2.72	-$0.43	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
SU suntori<$100	Southern Utahavg 85¢	$1.04	$1.03	-$0.01	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

scootergene

Southern Utah

Invested

$2,641.83

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$259.62

Record

6-137 (143)

omnibus-076daa

Southern Utah

Invested

$1,965.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$186.6

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

RN1

Southern Utah

Invested

$1,689.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$174.45

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

RUDY2323

Southern Utah

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$76.47

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

6512395314597884CTR

Portland State

Invested

$843.86

Value

$694.86

PnL

-$149

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189

Southern Utah

Invested

$1,185.09

Value

$528.47

PnL

-$92.86

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

CandleHammerDrums

Southern Utah

Invested

$369.73

Value

$326.26

PnL

-$43.48

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Southern Utah

Invested

$202.49

Value

$202.49

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Southern Utah

Invested

$124.14

Value

$127.29

PnL

+$3.14

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

averagejoetradersCTR

Portland State

Invested

$126.05

Value

$118.65

PnL

-$7.41

Record

56%

748-599 (1347)

NotJumpARB<$100

Portland State

Invested

$112.2

Value

$111.2

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

Both legs:

Southern Utah$52.550¢+$36.22

Portland State$59.741.2¢-$37.23

thirdt1meCTR

Portland State

Invested

$104.36

Value

$45.45

PnL

-$49.02

Record

48%

243-264 (507)

Pan9X

Southern Utah

Invested

$219.61

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$14.56

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

topdogbigboi<$100

Southern Utah

Invested

$14.72

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$0.53

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Portland State

Invested

$10

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

39%

406-629 (1035)

thatsabing0<$100

Southern Utah

Invested

$9.22

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.17

Record

62%

187-114 (301)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Portland State

Invested

$4.32

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.9

Record

25%

71-217 (288)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Portland State

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

suntori<$100

Southern Utah

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

NeutralSouthern Utah at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Utah

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Southern Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouthern Utah 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Utah 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Southern Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.