Stanford vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 65.5

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 75¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 15

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 75¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares22,154

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares21,319

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 61.7¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$230.86	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 37.5¢	$5.6K	$3.5K	$-2.1K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 62.9¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$180.72	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$339.29	52% 2662-2493 (5155)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 39¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$915.62	62% 1157-711 (1868)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 61¢	$914.98	$937.47	+$22.5	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 67.9¢	$693.5	$733.75	+$47.53	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 62¢	$507.78	$626.54	+$118.76	43% 74-100 (174)
dips.	Underavg 62.9¢	$345.18	$419.99	+$74.81	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 63.2¢	$299.93	$279.35	+$1.79	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 35¢	$184.85	$124.11	-$60.74	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 60¢	$52.8	$53.68	+$0.88	46% 877-1050 (1927)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Underavg 60¢	$36.72	$37.33	+$0.61	37% 447-766 (1213)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 62¢	$31	$31.25	+$0.25	51% 970-935 (1905)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 70¢	$21	$22.95	+$1.95	46% 775-926 (1701)

RN1

Under

Invested

$7,715.59

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$230.86

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$5,583.09

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,758.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$180.72

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,450.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$339.29

Record

52%

2662-2493 (5155)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$2,305.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$915.62

Record

62%

1157-711 (1868)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$914.98

Value

$937.47

PnL

+$22.5

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$693.5

Value

$733.75

PnL

+$47.53

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$507.78

Value

$626.54

PnL

+$118.76

Record

43%

74-100 (174)

dips.

Under

Invested

$345.18

Value

$419.99

PnL

+$74.81

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$299.93

Value

$279.35

PnL

+$1.79

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$184.85

Value

$124.11

PnL

-$60.74

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$52.8

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

SlickRick123<$100

Under

Invested

$36.72

Value

$37.33

PnL

+$0.61

Record

37%

447-766 (1213)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$31

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$1.95

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.