Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Stanford vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 59.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 38¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

-$503.22

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 37.5¢

-29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares28,635

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Over3 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares27,842

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 47¢	$10.0K	$13.3K	+$3.3K	52% 2662-2493 (5155)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 53¢	$12.1K	$8.6K	$-3.5K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
RN1	Underavg 46.4¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$494.72	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$796.31	62% 1157-711 (1868)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 47.7¢	$682.88	$680.04	-$2.84	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 46¢	$604.19	$624.01	+$19.82	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 46.5¢	$185.54	$180.06	+$4.24	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54	$53.5	-$0.5	51% 970-935 (1905)
TO tomb2456<$100	Underavg 56¢	$31.9	$30.19	-$1.71	55% 41-33 (74)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 45¢	$15.42	$15.59	+$0.17	55% 1770-1448 (3218)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$10,026.65

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

52%

2662-2493 (5155)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$12,082.8

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,902.19

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$494.72

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$2,645.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$796.31

Record

62%

1157-711 (1868)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$682.88

Value

$680.04

PnL

-$2.84

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$604.19

Value

$624.01

PnL

+$19.82

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$185.54

Value

$180.06

PnL

+$4.24

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$53.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

tomb2456<$100

Under

Invested

$31.9

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$1.71

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$15.42

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.