Spread: Louisiana Tech (-17.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana Tech (56%) · Louisiana Tech at 51¢ · $998 held · ends Nov 14

Louisiana Tech51¢Southern Miss49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisiana Tech

Consensus Traders

Louisiana Tech 56%

Total Value

$997.79

Combined PnL

$8.89

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana Tech at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Louisiana Tech51%

Southern Miss50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana Tech5 traders

Total Value$818.14

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL+$8.49

Southern Miss4 traders

Total Value$179.65

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$0.4

Louisiana Tech — 56%Southern Miss — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Southern Miss) and the top 1000 (7 on Louisiana Tech) disagree here.

ctrLouisiana Tech 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouthern Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana Tech 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Louisiana Techavg 49¢	$422.87	$427.19	+$4.31	59% 932-653 (1585)
LI Limousin	Louisiana Techavg 50¢	$266.5	$269.17	+$2.67	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Louisiana Techavg 48¢	$65.72	$67.77	+$2.05	48% 636-676 (1312)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Southern Missavg 50¢	$52.6	$53.13	+$0.53	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Southern Missavg 51¢	$47.43	$46.97	-$0.46	47% 312-350 (662)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 50¢	$39.77	$40.17	+$0.4	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 50.6¢	$39.45	$39.39	-$0.06	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Louisiana Techavg 50¢	$39.77	$39.37	-$0.4	61% 1048-661 (1709)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Louisiana Techavg 50¢	$14.79	$14.64	-$0.15	47% 100-111 (211)

primm

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$422.87

Value

$427.19

PnL

+$4.31

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

Limousin

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$266.5

Value

$269.17

PnL

+$2.67

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$65.72

Value

$67.77

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$52.6

Value

$53.13

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$47.43

Value

$46.97

PnL

-$0.46

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$39.77

Value

$40.17

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$39.45

Value

$39.39

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

darkumbreon88<$100

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$39.77

Value

$39.37

PnL

-$0.4

Record

61%

1048-661 (1709)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$14.79

Value

$14.64

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

100-111 (211)

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana Tech at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Southern Miss) and the top 1000 (7 on Louisiana Tech) disagree here.

ctrLouisiana Tech 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouthern Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana Tech 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.