Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Southern Miss, while the market favors Louisiana Tech (99%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Miss (75%) · Southern Miss at 1.3¢ · $814 held · ended Nov 14

Southern Miss1¢Louisiana Tech99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Southern Miss

Consensus Traders

Southern Miss 75%

Total Value

$813.91

Combined PnL

-$542.7

Smart Money Entry

11.2¢ → 1.3¢

-89% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouthern Miss at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Miss

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Louisiana Tech 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Southern Miss1%

Louisiana Tech99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Southern Miss9 traders

Total Value$571.6

Total Shares9,489

Combined PnL-$543.82

Louisiana Tech3 traders

Total Value$241.38

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$1.12

Southern Miss — 75%Louisiana Tech — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Southern Missavg 11¢	$988.81	$449.46	-$539.35	47% 36-41 (77)
SM smithagent	Louisiana Techavg 97.7¢	$107.78	$108.94	+$1.16	45% 707-867 (1574)
NO NotJumpCTR	Southern Missavg 50¢	$105	$105	+$0	52% 895-837 (1732)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Louisiana Techavg 97¢	$102.82	$102.77	-$0.05	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Louisiana Techavg 98.5¢	$29.66	$29.67	+$0.02	56% 4074-3181 (7255)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 6¢	$6.7	$7.26	+$0.56	31% 212-479 (691)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 4¢	$8.42	$6.35	-$2.06	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 6¢	$1.81	$1.51	-$0.3	48% 287-306 (593)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 11¢	$2.2	$1	-$1.2	45% 92-112 (204)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Southern Missavg 11¢	$1.85	$0.84	-$1.01	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 8.2¢	$0.57	$0.11	-$0.47	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 5¢	$0.05	$0.07	+$0.02	38% 1138-1890 (3028)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$988.81

Value

$449.46

PnL

-$539.35

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

smithagent

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$107.78

Value

$108.94

PnL

+$1.16

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

NotJumpCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$102.82

Value

$102.77

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$29.66

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

4074-3181 (7255)

babybellsCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$6.7

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$0.56

Record

31%

212-479 (691)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$8.42

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$2.06

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

287-306 (593)

efntrickCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

-$1.2

Record

45%

92-112 (204)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$1.01

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

Research grade

AvoidSouthern Miss at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Miss

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Louisiana Tech 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Southern Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.