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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was South Carolina State — but Howard won instead.

Spread: South Carolina State (-7.5)

Resolved Howard. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held South Carolina State. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

South Carolina State 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina State

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Carolina State0%

Howard100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Carolina State4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,996

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Howard8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,114

Combined PnL+$988.45

South Carolina State — 33%Howard — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	South Carolina Stateavg 74.6¢	$2.1K	—	$-3.2K	46% 8659-10309 (18968)
alpheclabs2	Howardavg 35¢	$172.2	$492	+$319.8	47% 1267-1442 (2709)
RN1ARB<$100	Howardavg 37.9¢	$154.02	$796	+$641.98	53% 61623-53954 (115577)
└ Howard leg	Howardavg 37.9¢	$301.94	$796	+$705.3
└ South Carolina State leg	South Carolina Stateavg 29.5¢	$63.32	—	-$63.32
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Howardavg 44.7¢	$223.7	$500.43	+$276.73	59% 33030-23202 (56232)
TO topdogbigboi	Howardavg 52.4¢	$219.09	$403.69	+$184.6	46% 11943-13783 (25726)
MA MadridTime	Howardavg 29.3¢	$120.31	$411.02	+$290.71	49% 1526-1589 (3115)
65 6512395314597884CTR	South Carolina Stateavg 71.6¢	$140.9	—	-$140.9	51% 4776-4635 (9411)
LI Limousin	Howardavg 28¢	$47.11	$168.14	+$107.8	51% 1620-1528 (3148)
PA Pan9X<$100	Howardavg 37.2¢	$83.42	$74	+$30.36	54% 9944-8355 (18299)
GA GaditimaCTR	South Carolina Stateavg 72.7¢	$135	—	-$35	48% 7416-8118 (15534)
VE Venusian<$100	Howardavg 21.5¢	$9.8	$45.57	+$28.04	50% 1585-1603 (3188)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Howardavg 96¢	$749.6	$19.57	-$249.6	56% 8330-6493 (14823)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	South Carolina Stateavg 71¢	—	—	+$0	48% 61607-66479 (128086)

South Carolina State

Invested

$2,050.13

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

46%

8659-10309 (18968)

Invested

$172.2

Value

$492

PnL

+$319.8

Record

47%

1267-1442 (2709)

Invested

$154.02

Value

$796

PnL

+$641.98

Record

53%

61623-53954 (115577)

Both legs:

Howard$301.9437.9¢+$705.3

South Carolina State$63.3229.5¢-$63.32

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$223.7

Value

$500.43

PnL

+$276.73

Record

59%

33030-23202 (56232)

Invested

$219.09

Value

$403.69

PnL

+$184.6

Record

46%

11943-13783 (25726)

Invested

$120.31

Value

$411.02

PnL

+$290.71

Record

49%

1526-1589 (3115)

6512395314597884CTR

South Carolina State

Invested

$140.9

Value

—

PnL

-$140.9

Record

51%

4776-4635 (9411)

Invested

$47.11

Value

$168.14

PnL

+$107.8

Record

51%

1620-1528 (3148)

Invested

$83.42

Value

$74

PnL

+$30.36

Record

54%

9944-8355 (18299)

South Carolina State

Invested

$135

Value

—

PnL

-$35

Record

48%

7416-8118 (15534)

Invested

$9.8

Value

$45.57

PnL

+$28.04

Record

50%

1585-1603 (3188)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$749.6

Value

$19.57

PnL

-$249.6

Record

56%

8330-6493 (14823)

38791873984189CTR<$100

South Carolina State

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

61607-66479 (128086)

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina State

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1b5ac2a4...31638d

Slug

cfb-scarst-howrd-2026-11-05-spread-away-7pt5

Traders in this Market

nigiri99

South Carolina State — $0

alpheclabs2

Howard — $492

RN1

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Howard — $500.43

topdogbigboi

Howard — $403.69

MadridTime

Howard — $411.02

6512395314597884

South Carolina State — $0

Limousin

Howard — $168.14

Pan9X

Howard — $74

Gaditima

South Carolina State — $0

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