Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 43.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 50%
3 arb excluded
$8.2K
$9.63
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $5.5K | $5.4K | -$46.86 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $3.8K | $3.7K | -$150.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$103.45 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 50.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$32.13 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.6¢ | $932.44 | $893.92 | -$38.53 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $626.54 | $632.94 | +$6.4 | |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$20 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $510 | $515 | +$5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $510 | $485 | -$25 | |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Underavg 47.3¢ | $153.87 | $166.01 | +$12.13 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $51 | $48.5 | -$2.5 | 67% 1645-796 (2441) |
Invested
$5,488.26
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$46.86
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,558.98
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$32.13
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$20
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.87
Value
$166.01
PnL
+$12.13
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$51
Value
$48.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
67%
1645-796 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.