Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 35.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 72¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$68.79

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 71.5¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,241

Combined PnL+$34.84

Under2 traders

Total Value$560.19

Total Shares1,698

Combined PnL+$33.95

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 66.5¢	$5.7K	$4.9K	-$33.41	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 33.3¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$290.89	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$814.4	$1.1K	+$299.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.3¢	$830	$821.7	-$8.3
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$467.66	$588.23	+$120.56	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$286	$402	+$116
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.2¢	$181.66	$186.23	+$4.56
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 69¢	$1.3K	$349.19	-$34.75	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 69¢	$206.23	$201.74	-$35.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.4¢	$147.12	$147.44	+$0.3
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 31¢	$265.52	$282.65	+$17.13	30% 402-921 (1323)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 31¢	$260.72	$277.54	+$16.82	31% 412-897 (1309)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 48¢	$172.43	$240.68	+$68.25	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$129.75	$122.85	+$33.12	49% 693-734 (1427)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$49.94	$72.36	+$29.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.3¢	$52.42	$50.49	+$3.39

primm

Over

Invested

$5,732.76

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$33.41

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,644.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$290.89

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$814.449¢+$299.19

Under$83033.3¢-$8.3

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.66

Value

$588.23

PnL

+$120.56

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Over$28647.7¢+$116

Under$181.6632.2¢+$4.56

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,305.87

Value

$349.19

PnL

-$34.75

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Over$206.2369¢-$35.05

Under$147.1232.4¢+$0.3

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$265.52

Value

$282.65

PnL

+$17.13

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$260.72

Value

$277.54

PnL

+$16.82

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$172.43

Value

$240.68

PnL

+$68.25

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$129.75

Value

$122.85

PnL

+$33.12

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Both legs:

Over$49.9446.2¢+$29.73

Under$52.4234.3¢+$3.39

Research grade

NeutralOver at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.