Spread: Central Michigan (-9.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (50%) · Central Michigan at 63¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan63¢Sacramento State37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$41.16

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan63%

Sacramento State38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,523

Combined PnL-$34.62

Central Michigan5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,074

Combined PnL-$6.54

Sacramento State — 50%Central Michigan — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 37¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$22.41	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1	Central Michiganavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$11.49	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
65 6512395314597884	Central Michiganavg 62.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$2.39	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 29¢	$352.83	$382.18	+$29.35	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 29¢	$221.85	$225.67	+$3.82
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 59¢	$130.98	$156.51	+$25.53
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 41¢	$305.3	$279.24	-$26.06	9% 40-430 (470)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Central Michiganavg 59.9¢	$196.39	$206.58	+$10.19	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9X	Central Michiganavg 62.3¢	$177.13	$138.34	-$3.49	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 43¢	$95.41	$65.45	-$29.95	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
15 0x154c...658eCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 37.7¢	$61.24	$60.95	-$0.29	—
F1 0xf1f2...8c8dCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 38¢	$33.4	$32.68	-$0.72	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Central Michiganavg 63¢	$16.19	$16.84	+$0.64	53% 5821-5182 (11003)

primmCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,606.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.41

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,447.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.49

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

6512395314597884

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,382.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.39

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$352.83

Value

$382.18

PnL

+$29.35

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Sacramento State$221.8529¢+$3.82

Central Michigan$130.9859¢+$25.53

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$305.3

Value

$279.24

PnL

-$26.06

Record

40-430 (470)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Central Michigan

Invested

$196.39

Value

$206.58

PnL

+$10.19

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9X

Central Michigan

Invested

$177.13

Value

$138.34

PnL

-$3.49

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$95.41

Value

$65.45

PnL

-$29.95

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x154c...658eCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$61.24

Value

$60.95

PnL

-$0.29

Record

—

0xf1f2...8c8dCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$33.4

Value

$32.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.