Spread: Central Michigan (-3.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (50%) · Central Michigan at 87¢ · $373 held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan87¢Sacramento State13¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 50%

Total Value

$373.17

Combined PnL

-$0

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 86.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan87%

Sacramento State14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan3 traders

Total Value$312.98

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$14.37

Sacramento State3 traders

Total Value$60.18

Total Shares414

Combined PnL-$14.37

Central Michigan — 50%Sacramento State — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Central Michigan 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Central Michiganavg 82¢	$168.28	$182.65	+$14.37	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189	Central Michiganavg 82¢	$119.31	$119.31	-$0	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 18¢	$34.25	$34.25	-$0	30% 401-920 (1321)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 18¢	$36.94	$22.57	-$14.37	31% 412-918 (1330)
GH ghorrock<$100	Central Michiganavg 82¢	$11.02	$11.02	+$0	55% 680-552 (1232)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 18¢	$3.36	$3.36	+$0	31% 410-897 (1307)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Central Michigan

Invested

$168.28

Value

$182.65

PnL

+$14.37

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189

Central Michigan

Invested

$119.31

Value

$119.31

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$34.25

Value

$34.25

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$36.94

Value

$22.57

PnL

-$14.37

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

ghorrock<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Central Michigan 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.