Spread: Central Michigan (-23.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (86%) · Sacramento State at 82¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan19¢Sacramento State81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 86%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$381.45

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 81.5¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan19%

Sacramento State82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,294

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Central Michigan1 trader

Total Value$739.26

Total Shares3,996

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Sacramento State — 86%Central Michigan — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Sacramento Stateavg 54.5¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.1K	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PR primmCTR	Central Michiganavg 46¢	$1.8K	$739.26	$-1.1K	61% 870-566 (1436)
65 6512395314597884	Sacramento Stateavg 53¢	$322.63	$539.14	+$216.52	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189	Sacramento Stateavg 52¢	$140.96	$239.81	+$98.86	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 51.3¢	$55.55	$95.87	+$40.32	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 51.7¢	$54.02	$92.48	+$38.45	49% 693-734 (1427)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 68¢	$22.5	$27.13	+$4.63	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

RN1

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,726.83

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

primmCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,836.23

Value

$739.26

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

6512395314597884

Sacramento State

Invested

$322.63

Value

$539.14

PnL

+$216.52

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189

Sacramento State

Invested

$140.96

Value

$239.81

PnL

+$98.86

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$55.55

Value

$95.87

PnL

+$40.32

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Pan9X<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$54.02

Value

$92.48

PnL

+$38.45

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$22.5

Value

$27.13

PnL

+$4.63

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State 86% · 7

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.