Spread: Central Michigan (-20.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (67%) · Sacramento State at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan28¢Sacramento State72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$16.18

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 71.5¢

+51% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan28%

Sacramento State72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,824

Combined PnL+$664.69

Central Michigan2 traders

Total Value$780.9

Total Shares2,740

Combined PnL-$680.87

Sacramento State — 67%Central Michigan — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Sacramento Stateavg 46.8¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$192.43	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
BI biying88888	Sacramento Stateavg 49¢	$581.63	$848.7	+$267.07	37% 121-203 (324)
PR primmCTR	Central Michiganavg 52.9¢	$842.39	$454	-$388.39	61% 870-566 (1436)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sacramento Stateavg 45.7¢	$245.01	$437.34	+$192.33	55% 719-584 (1303)
CM cm2897CTR	Central Michiganavg 54¢	$619.38	$326.9	-$292.49	49% 1112-1143 (2255)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Central Michiganavg 53.3¢	$412.05	$231.39	-$180.65	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 53.3¢	$349.95	$121.37	-$228.58
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 46¢	$62.1	$110.02	+$47.92
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Central Michiganavg 51.9¢	$232.48	$108.01	-$124.47	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 51.9¢	$212.16	$75.67	-$136.49
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 51.2¢	$20.32	$32.34	+$12.02
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Central Michiganavg 51.6¢	$94.09	$56.98	-$37.11	49% 693-734 (1427)
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 52¢	$19.24	$30.15	+$10.92
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 51.6¢	$74.85	$26.83	-$48.02
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 51¢	$21.5	$34.36	+$12.86	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

RN1

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,773.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$192.43

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

biying88888

Sacramento State

Invested

$581.63

Value

$848.7

PnL

+$267.07

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

primmCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$842.39

Value

$454

PnL

-$388.39

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Sacramento State

Invested

$245.01

Value

$437.34

PnL

+$192.33

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

cm2897CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$619.38

Value

$326.9

PnL

-$292.49

Record

49%

1112-1143 (2255)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$412.05

Value

$231.39

PnL

-$180.65

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Central Michigan$349.9553.3¢-$228.58

Sacramento State$62.146¢+$47.92

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$232.48

Value

$108.01

PnL

-$124.47

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Central Michigan$212.1651.9¢-$136.49

Sacramento State$20.3251.2¢+$12.02

Pan9XARB<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$94.09

Value

$56.98

PnL

-$37.11

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Both legs:

Sacramento State$19.2452¢+$10.92

Central Michigan$74.8551.6¢-$48.02

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$21.5

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$12.86

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.