Spread: Central Michigan (-11.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (50%) · Central Michigan at 55¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Central Michigan
6
Central Michigan 50%
$607.16
$56.73
53.2¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCentral Michigan at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Central Michiganavg 52.9¢ | $283.9 | $348.63 | +$64.73 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
PR primmCTR | Sacramento Stateavg 47¢ | $235 | $227.5 | -$7.5 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
15 0x154c...658eCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 48¢ | $11.78 | $11.17 | -$0.61 | — |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Central Michiganavg 64¢ | $8.6 | $8.74 | +$0.13 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
 RN1<$100 | Central Michiganavg 53¢ | $6.3 | $6.42 | +$0.12 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 36¢ | $4.84 | $4.7 | -$0.13 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
Invested
$283.9
Value
$348.63
PnL
+$64.73
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$235
Value
$227.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$11.17
PnL
-$0.61
Record
—
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.42
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0.13
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.