Spread: Central Michigan (-10.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (63%) · Central Michigan at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan56¢Sacramento State44¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 63%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$29.73

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 56.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan56%

Sacramento State44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,538

Combined PnL-$86.87

Sacramento State3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,456

Combined PnL+$116.6

Central Michigan — 63%Sacramento State — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Central Michigan 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Central Michiganavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$37.18	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PR primmCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 41.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$46.26	61% 870-566 (1436)
65 6512395314597884	Central Michiganavg 58.4¢	$337.03	$319.21	-$17.82	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Central Michiganavg 66¢	$254.84	$223.95	-$30.89	55% 719-584 (1303)
VE VenusianCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 34¢	$131.28	$200.78	+$69.5	31% 411-924 (1335)
PA Pan9X<$100	Central Michiganavg 57.7¢	$65.37	$64.04	-$1.33	49% 693-734 (1427)
15 0x154c...658eCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 42.9¢	$62.14	$62.99	+$0.85	—
38 38791873984189<$100	Central Michiganavg 56¢	$38.23	$38.57	+$0.34	48% 1430-1573 (3003)

RN1

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,439.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$37.18

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

primmCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,226.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$46.26

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

6512395314597884

Central Michigan

Invested

$337.03

Value

$319.21

PnL

-$17.82

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Central Michigan

Invested

$254.84

Value

$223.95

PnL

-$30.89

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

VenusianCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$131.28

Value

$200.78

PnL

+$69.5

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Pan9X<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$65.37

Value

$64.04

PnL

-$1.33

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x154c...658eCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$62.14

Value

$62.99

PnL

+$0.85

Record

—

38791873984189<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$38.23

Value

$38.57

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Central Michigan 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.