Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (60%) · Central Michigan at 90¢ · $330 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Central Michigan
5
Central Michigan 60%
$330.5
$17.14
88¢ → 89.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCentral Michigan at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Central Michiganavg 88¢ | $146.06 | $147.72 | +$1.66 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sacramento Stateavg 10¢ | $125 | $137.5 | +$12.5 | 51% 361-341 (702) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 10¢ | $28.2 | $31.02 | +$2.82 | 48% 520-570 (1090) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Central Michiganavg 88¢ | $10.58 | $10.7 | +$0.12 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Central Michiganavg 88¢ | $3.52 | $3.56 | +$0.04 | 57% 3109-2336 (5445) |
Invested
$146.06
Value
$147.72
PnL
+$1.66
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$125
Value
$137.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
51%
361-341 (702)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$31.02
PnL
+$2.82
Record
48%
520-570 (1090)
Invested
$10.58
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$0.04
Record
57%
3109-2336 (5445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.