Rutgers vs. Wisconsin

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (53%) · Wisconsin at 88¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 7

Rutgers12¢Wisconsin88¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 53%

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$17.32

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 88¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rutgers12%

Wisconsin88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wisconsin10 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares18,382

Combined PnL-$139.57

Rutgers9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares20,056

Combined PnL+$156.89

Wisconsin — 53%Rutgers — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Wisconsinavg 89¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	-$100.31	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
OD Oddstorm	Wisconsinavg 90.3¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$84.27	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
38 38791873984189	Wisconsinavg 88.9¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	+$53.59	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Rutgersavg 11.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$106.54	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wisconsinavg 81.6¢	$440.34	$475.06	+$34.71	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
OJ ojg	Wisconsinavg 94.2¢	$504.87	$471.88	-$32.99	43% 838-1096 (1934)
BI BillBenter2026	Wisconsinavg 91.2¢	$396.93	$382.8	-$14.13	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
wowfarm	Wisconsinavg 89¢	$373.87	$369.59	-$4.28	71% 4957-1990 (6947)
nigiri99CTR	Rutgersavg 11¢	$220	$240	+$20	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
IC ic4creamCTR	Rutgersavg 11.3¢	$152.13	$161.64	+$9.51	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
LI LimousinCTR	Rutgersavg 11.3¢	$135.77	$144.26	+$8.49	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100	Wisconsinavg 84¢	$70.43	$73.78	+$3.35	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wisconsinavg 89¢	$50	$50.6	+$0.6	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Wisconsinavg 92.5¢	$32.51	$36.66	+$4.15	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 2.1¢	$3.21	$18.32	+$15.12	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 10¢	$15.11	$18.13	+$3.02	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 18.1¢	$14.08	$9.33	-$4.74	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Rutgersavg 16¢	$4.96	$3.72	-$1.24	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 10¢	$0.91	$1.09	+$0.18	54% 18557-15589 (34146)

0xheavy888

Wisconsin

Invested

$8,928.01

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$100.31

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Oddstorm

Wisconsin

Invested

$3,351.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$84.27

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

38791873984189

Wisconsin

Invested

$2,880.94

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$53.59

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTimeCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$1,703.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$106.54

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wisconsin

Invested

$440.34

Value

$475.06

PnL

+$34.71

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

ojg

Wisconsin

Invested

$504.87

Value

$471.88

PnL

-$32.99

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

BillBenter2026

Wisconsin

Invested

$396.93

Value

$382.8

PnL

-$14.13

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

wowfarm

Wisconsin

Invested

$373.87

Value

$369.59

PnL

-$4.28

Record

71%

4957-1990 (6947)

nigiri99CTR

Rutgers

Invested

$220

Value

$240

PnL

+$20

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

ic4creamCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$152.13

Value

$161.64

PnL

+$9.51

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

LimousinCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$135.77

Value

$144.26

PnL

+$8.49

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

CUTJALENHURTS<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$70.43

Value

$73.78

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

Pan9X<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$50

Value

$50.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$32.51

Value

$36.66

PnL

+$4.15

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$3.21

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$15.12

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$15.11

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$3.02

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$14.08

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$4.74

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

cm2897CTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$4.96

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.