Purdue vs. Iowa: O/U 47.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 62¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$226.21

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 61.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,851

Combined PnL-$151.81

Under7 traders

Total Value$589.86

Total Shares1,707

Combined PnL-$74.4

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 65.4¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$134.85	59% 1044-726 (1770)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$105.98	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.3¢	$800.32	$780.97	-$19.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$263.7	$389.03	+$125.33
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 35¢	$347.24	$332.35	-$14.88	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 52¢	$220.48	$203.52	-$16.96	48% 670-715 (1385)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48¢	$203.52	$146.28	-$57.24	51% 639-619 (1258)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$43.98	$44.04	+$0.06	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$35.07	$33.5	-$1.57	51% 970-935 (1905)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 33.7¢	$19.86	$20.03	+$0.18	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$13.68	$12.73	-$0.95	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.92	-$0	49% 389-413 (802)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,242.53

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$134.85

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,064.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$105.98

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Under$800.3234.3¢-$19.35

Over$263.745.1¢+$125.33

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$347.24

Value

$332.35

PnL

-$14.88

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$220.48

Value

$203.52

PnL

-$16.96

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$203.52

Value

$146.28

PnL

-$57.24

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.98

Value

$44.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.07

Value

$33.5

PnL

-$1.57

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.86

Value

$20.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.68

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$0.95

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.