Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Purdue, while the market favors Iowa (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Iowa (-17.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue (44%) · Purdue at 43¢ · $49K held · ended Nov 15

Iowa57¢Purdue43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Purdue

Consensus Traders

Purdue 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.8K

Combined PnL

$7.0K

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 42.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa57%

Purdue43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue4 traders

Total Value$41.4K

Total Shares77,210

Combined PnL+$6.1K

Iowa5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares9,955

Combined PnL+$885.33

Purdue — 44%Iowa — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Purdueavg 45.5¢	$31.3K	$37.5K	+$6.2K	51% 3883-3667 (7550)
nigiri99	Iowaavg 53¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	+$541.2	52% 602-565 (1167)
PR primmCTR	Purdueavg 47.1¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$46.43	60% 1016-678 (1694)
PW Pwaddler	Iowaavg 51.4¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$342.66	49% 269-283 (552)
RN1ARB<$100	Iowaavg 58¢	$802.67	$764.42	-$38.26	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 58¢	$443.12	$446.94	+$3.82
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 47¢	$359.55	$317.47	-$42.08
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Iowaavg 49.5¢	$252.06	$262.66	+$10.6	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 49.5¢	$143.49	$155.24	+$11.75
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 47¢	$108.57	$107.42	-$1.15
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Iowaavg 58¢	$210	$200	-$10	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 58¢	$116	$117	+$1
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 47¢	$94	$83	-$11
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Iowaavg 52¢	$86.06	$86.89	+$0.83	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Purdueavg 47¢	$32.9	$32.55	-$0.35	51% 917-874 (1791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Iowaavg 56.6¢	$51.48	$32.47	+$0.57	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Iowaavg 49¢	$11.63	$11.69	+$0.07	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Purdueavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.75	+$0.05	53% 310-274 (584)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Purdue

Invested

$31,340.65

Value

$37.5K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

51%

3883-3667 (7550)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$4,195.48

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$541.2

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

primmCTR

Purdue

Invested

$3,893.78

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$46.43

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

Pwaddler

Iowa

Invested

$1,665.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$342.66

Record

49%

269-283 (552)

RN1ARB<$100

Iowa

Invested

$802.67

Value

$764.42

PnL

-$38.26

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Both legs:

Iowa$443.1258¢+$3.82

Purdue$359.5547¢-$42.08

38791873984189ARB<$100

Iowa

Invested

$252.06

Value

$262.66

PnL

+$10.6

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Iowa$143.4949.5¢+$11.75

Purdue$108.5747¢-$1.15

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Iowa

Invested

$210

Value

$200

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Both legs:

Invested

$86.06

Value

$86.89

PnL

+$0.83

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$32.9

Value

$32.55

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Pan9X<$100

Iowa

Invested

$51.48

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrock<$100

Iowa

Invested

$11.63

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.