Penn State vs. Washington: O/U 45.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 53¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 7

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.5K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 53¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$38.2K

Total Shares71,765

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,545

Combined PnL-$259.71

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.8¢	$27.5K	$29.2K	+$1.7K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
HI hi774c	Underavg 48.4¢	$5.4K	$5.9K	+$512.41	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$130.23	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$95.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$448.61	$413.45	-$35.16
PR primm	Underavg 55.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$77.86	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$71.11	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52¢	$780	$795	+$15	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Underavg 36¢	$301.32	$443.61	+$142.29	46% 454-543 (997)
RN1CTR	Overavg 63.9¢	$551.18	$405.14	-$146.04	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 13.1¢	$73.18	$296.8	+$223.62	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 90.9¢	$88.15	$45.59	-$42.56	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 11¢	$6.27	$30.21	+$23.94	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA Markram<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$5.3	+$0.6	67% 2292-1123 (3415)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 15¢	$0.18	$0.62	+$0.45	51% 5014-4884 (9898)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$27,483.39

Value

$29.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$5,398.3

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$512.41

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,185

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$130.23

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$1,211.9851.6¢-$95.08

Over$448.6151¢-$35.16

primm

Under

Invested

$1,582.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$77.86

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$1,286.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$71.11

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$780

Value

$795

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Under

Invested

$301.32

Value

$443.61

PnL

+$142.29

Record

46%

454-543 (997)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$551.18

Value

$405.14

PnL

-$146.04

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$73.18

Value

$296.8

PnL

+$223.62

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.15

Value

$45.59

PnL

-$42.56

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$23.94

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Markram<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.6

Record

67%

2292-1123 (3415)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.