Oregon State vs. Boise State: O/U 63.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over75¢Under25¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$937.88

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 74.5¢

+37% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,914

Combined PnL+$77.12

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,099

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 54.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$38.45	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	$-1.0K	60% 1016-678 (1694)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54.3¢	$562.12	$489.01	+$1.59	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 54.2¢	$457.61	$468.58	+$10.97	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$41.4	$52.56	+$11.17	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$34.3	$44.55	+$10.25	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$17.45	$19.68	+$2.24	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$26.86	$18.87	-$8	39% 419-652 (1071)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 52¢	$25.86	$13.71	+$0.81	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$18.57	$10.88	-$7.69	48% 560-611 (1171)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.4	$7.05	+$1.65	45% 277-332 (609)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$141.1	$1.89	+$11.02	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,668.73

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$38.45

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,282.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$562.12

Value

$489.01

PnL

+$1.59

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$457.61

Value

$468.58

PnL

+$10.97

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$41.4

Value

$52.56

PnL

+$11.17

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$34.3

Value

$44.55

PnL

+$10.25

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$17.45

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$2.24

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.86

Value

$18.87

PnL

-$8

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$25.86

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.57

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$7.69

Record

48%

560-611 (1171)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.4

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$1.65

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$141.1

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$11.02

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.