Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Boise State, while the market favors Oregon State (53%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Boise State (-20.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (78%) · Boise State at 48¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Boise State48¢Oregon State52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Boise State

Consensus Traders

Boise State 78%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$128.47

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 47.5¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Oregon State 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boise State48%

Oregon State53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon State2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,618

Combined PnL+$209.94

Boise State7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,699

Combined PnL-$81.47

Oregon State — 22%Boise State — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Oregon Stateavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$142.44	60% 1016-678 (1694)
RN1CTR	Boise Stateavg 50.8¢	$900.64	$846.94	-$53.71	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Boise Stateavg 61¢	$305	$302.5	-$2.5	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Oregon Stateavg 39¢	$195	$262.5	+$67.5	12% 61-467 (528)
38 38791873984189CTR	Boise Stateavg 52¢	$133.36	$111.62	-$21.74	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Boise Stateavg 43¢	$97.65	$98.85	+$1.2	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Boise Stateavg 49.9¢	$38.63	$34.61	-$4.02	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Boise Stateavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.18	-$0.23	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Boise Stateavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.18	-$0.48	57% 3579-2662 (6241)

primm

Oregon State

Invested

$1,054.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$142.44

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

RN1CTR

Boise State

Invested

$900.64

Value

$846.94

PnL

-$53.71

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Boise State

Invested

$305

Value

$302.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Oregon State

Invested

$195

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

12%

61-467 (528)

38791873984189CTR

Boise State

Invested

$133.36

Value

$111.62

PnL

-$21.74

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Boise State

Invested

$97.65

Value

$98.85

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Boise State

Invested

$38.63

Value

$34.61

PnL

-$4.02

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Boise State

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Boise State

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.48

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Oregon State 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.