Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 43.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$298.8

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 55.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,884

Combined PnL+$292.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,940

Combined PnL+$5.93

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$162.8	54% 18469-15536 (34005)
nigiri99	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$99.65	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$19.48	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$862.95	$839.51	-$23.44	51% 4999-4865 (9864)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 44¢	$1.8K	$785.7	+$8.83	46% 5310-6147 (11457)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 51.7¢	$309.72	$332.17	+$20.95	48% 403-445 (848)
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 53.7¢	$176.83	$182.6	+$8.23	48% 7444-7979 (15423)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 44¢	$159.97	$161.78	+$1.8	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$26.87	$27.75	+$1.25	47% 530-607 (1137)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$20.7	$20.03	-$0.68	50% 8428-8461 (16889)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$2.49	$2.42	-$0.07	48% 1742-1871 (3613)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,845.05

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$162.8

Record

54%

18469-15536 (34005)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,750.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$99.65

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,710.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$19.48

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$862.95

Value

$839.51

PnL

-$23.44

Record

51%

4999-4865 (9864)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,765.62

Value

$785.7

PnL

+$8.83

Record

46%

5310-6147 (11457)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$309.72

Value

$332.17

PnL

+$20.95

Record

48%

403-445 (848)

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$176.83

Value

$182.6

PnL

+$8.23

Record

48%

7444-7979 (15423)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$159.97

Value

$161.78

PnL

+$1.8

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Over

Invested

$26.87

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

47%

530-607 (1137)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.03

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

8428-8461 (16889)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.