Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: O/U 63.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 53¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 7

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$87.51

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares26,434

Combined PnL+$334.05

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares11,815

Combined PnL-$246.54

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 51.1¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	+$198.77	48% 405-446 (851)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.4¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$158.53	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$99.53	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$3.09	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$41.61	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$807.32	$809.81	+$2.49	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$457.91	$471.1	+$13.19
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$349.4	$338.71	-$10.7
HI hi774c	Underavg 51¢	$759	$781.32	+$22.32	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$507.5	$475	-$32.5	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$306	$315	+$9	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$278	$264.1	-$13.9	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 50¢	$27.45	$28.63	+$1.17	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.32	$2.48	+$0.17	64% 10184-5783 (15967)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$7,035.68

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$198.77

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$4,058.76

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$158.53

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$3,383.88

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$99.53

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,405.37

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$3.09

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,239.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$41.61

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$807.32

Value

$809.81

PnL

+$2.49

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Under$457.9151¢+$13.19

Over$349.449¢-$10.7

hi774c

Under

Invested

$759

Value

$781.32

PnL

+$22.32

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$507.5

Value

$475

PnL

-$32.5

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$306

Value

$315

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$278

Value

$264.1

PnL

-$13.9

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$27.45

Value

$28.63

PnL

+$1.17

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.17

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.