Oklahoma vs. Florida: O/U 45.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 76¢ · $73K held · ended Nov 8

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$72.6K

Combined PnL

$20.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 75.8¢

+53% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$69.4K

Total Shares90,060

Combined PnL+$24.7K

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares15,743

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 48¢	$20.3K	$40.2K	+$19.9K	48% 405-446 (851)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.7¢	$8.8K	$10.1K	+$1.3K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 56.5¢	$8.0K	$9.7K	+$1.6K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 39.5¢	$4.4K	$6.4K	+$2.0K	49% 451-468 (919)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$2.7K	$1.8K	-$957.08	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.9K	$1.5K	$-3.4K	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
SE sentrio	Underavg 76.5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$374.63	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$160	55% 790-658 (1448)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 62¢	$372	$408	+$36	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
GC GC-P	Underavg 62.9¢	$191.06	$206.47	+$15.4	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$115.5	$116.66	+$1.16	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.41	$4.55	+$0.14	51% 38648-37820 (76468)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$20,293.44

Value

$40.2K

PnL

+$19.9K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,835.37

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$8,021.34

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$4,361.99

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$2,711.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$957.08

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$4,925

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$1,549.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$374.63

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$160

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$372

Value

$408

PnL

+$36

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$191.06

Value

$206.47

PnL

+$15.4

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$115.5

Value

$116.66

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

75.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.