Spread: Florida (-6.5)

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (88%) · Oklahoma at 83¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 8

Florida17¢Oklahoma83¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.5K

Combined PnL

$14.9K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 83¢

+50% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

15 of 17 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida17%

Oklahoma83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma15 traders

Total Value$46.7K

Total Shares55,917

Combined PnL+$14.9K

Florida2 traders

Total Value$20.94

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$14.06

Oklahoma — 88%Florida — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Oklahomaavg 55¢	$12.2K	$19.7K	+$7.5K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Oklahomaavg 55¢	$8.3K	$11.8K	+$3.5K	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
BA Bagwell306	Oklahomaavg 55¢	$2.7K	$4.2K	+$1.5K	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
0xheavy888	Oklahomaavg 56¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$908.22	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Oklahomaavg 57.7¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$577.72	47% 535-611 (1146)
VeryLucky888	Oklahomaavg 55.5¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$580	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NM NM-P	Oklahomaavg 54.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$49.63	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Oklahomaavg 52¢	$1.7K	$912.83	+$17.23	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Floridaavg 44.7¢	$2.1K	$782.91	-$551.67	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Florida leg	Floridaavg 44.7¢	$1.1K	$410.5	-$685.16
└ Oklahoma leg	Oklahomaavg 53.4¢	$238.12	$372.41	+$133.49
GC GC-P	Oklahomaavg 55.5¢	$664.16	$692.14	+$27.99	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Oklahomaavg 56¢	$336	$519	+$183	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
SE sentrio	Oklahomaavg 80.5¢	$403.66	$441.27	+$37.61	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
AU Aurelius7	Oklahomaavg 51.7¢	$355.15	$356.86	+$13.73	47% 274-313 (587)
SN SnakeBall	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$146	$151.84	+$10.22	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
RL RLWG<$100	Oklahomaavg 56¢	$64.4	$97.18	+$32.78	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
GH ghorrock<$100	Oklahomaavg 53.7¢	$44.51	$49.01	+$4.5	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Floridaavg 43.3¢	$30.59	$19.16	-$8.53	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Floridaavg 43¢	$7.31	$1.79	-$5.52	53% 6334-5615 (11949)

HomeRunHazard

Oklahoma

Invested

$12,196.47

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Oklahoma

Invested

$8,294.41

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

Bagwell306

Oklahoma

Invested

$2,749.45

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

0xheavy888

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,541.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$908.22

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,645.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$577.72

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

VeryLucky888

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,110

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$580

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NM-P

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,343.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$49.63

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Oklahoma

Invested

$1,722.33

Value

$912.83

PnL

+$17.23

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Florida

Invested

$2,053.83

Value

$782.91

PnL

-$551.67

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Florida$1,111.9344.7¢-$685.16

Oklahoma$238.1253.4¢+$133.49

GC-P

Oklahoma

Invested

$664.16

Value

$692.14

PnL

+$27.99

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Oklahoma

Invested

$336

Value

$519

PnL

+$183

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

sentrio

Oklahoma

Invested

$403.66

Value

$441.27

PnL

+$37.61

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Aurelius7

Oklahoma

Invested

$355.15

Value

$356.86

PnL

+$13.73

Record

47%

274-313 (587)

SnakeBall

Oklahoma

Invested

$146

Value

$151.84

PnL

+$10.22

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

RLWG<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$64.4

Value

$97.18

PnL

+$32.78

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

ghorrock<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$44.51

Value

$49.01

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$30.59

Value

$19.16

PnL

-$8.53

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$7.31

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$5.52

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

15 of 17 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.